Navigating a low-carbon future: maritime decarbonisation on the 2025 global agenda

Ten years ago, at COP21 the Paris Agreement was adopted as a global response to the threat of climate change, aiming at limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.  In the same year, world leaders also committed to thriving the planet through the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Notably, Sustainable Development Goal 13 specifically calls for a deep, rapid and sustained Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions’ reduction (-43% by 2030), achieving net zero by 2050.

Now, ten years later, the urgency to translate these commitments into concrete actions has never been greater. The shipping sector contributes 3% of current global CO2 emissions and this share could increase to an estimated 10% by 2050, if no measures are taken. Decarbonising the shipping industry is therefore essential to limit global warming, bringing us significantly closer to a cleaner and greener future.

2025 could mark a turning point, with the international agenda packed with high-level meetings on ocean sustainability, creating a critical window of opportunity for nations to take actions to meet climate targets through maritime transport’s decarbonisation.

Between February and April 2025, member states of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will determine the mid-term measures to reduce GHG emissions. This decision will set the stage for discussions on financing sustainable maritime transport at the Monaco Blue Economy and Finance Forum in June, followed by further international engagements at the Third United Nations Ocean Conference in Nice. Countries will reconvene in London in Autumn 2025, where they will discuss the implementation of the IMO measures, set to come into force by 2027. These events will ultimately lead the way to COP30 in Belém (Brazil), where global climate ambitions will take centre stage.

The first appointment in this dense agenda is set for today, 17th of February, in London, where technical discussions on the IMO’s mid-term measures begin, laying the groundwork for their final adoption in April. These measures will establish clear targets for reducing GHG emissions while implementing economic incentives to support the transition towards a decarbonised shipping industry by 2050. However, diverging perspectives have emerged on the optimal design of both the technical and economic measures.

An ambitious proposal, supported by the 27 European member states and the European Commission, together with Japan, contrasts with the approach backed by Angola, Argentina, Brazil, China, Ecuador, Norway, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and Uruguay, who favour a less ambitious stance, particularly concerning the economic measures.

The week-long technical meeting starting today kicks off the final stretch of the negotiations. It is crucial for countries to engage in meaningful discussions that will lay the foundation for an ambitious yet actionable transition.

The EU-Japan proposal strongly advocates for three key elements, making it the most forward-thinking path to pursue. These include: 

·      Setting high targets to ensure a progressive reduction in the carbon intensity of marine fuels, calculated considering the full life cycle of emissions, from fuel production to vessel operation.

·      Accompanying the technical measures with a strong economic component, that not only penalises emissions exceeding set targets but also introduces a carbon tax on all emissions to help finance the transition.

·      Establishing a clear definition of low-carbon fuels while promoting incentives for their widespread adoption and use. These fuels should exclude first-generation biofuels to avoid the negative environmental impacts often associated with their production.

The EU has already taken significant steps towards decarbonising the maritime sector. The FuelEU Regulation sets annual limits for GHG emissions while promoting the development of sustainable fuels. Additionally, since January 2025, GHG emissions in Europe have been regulated under a market-based mechanism through the Emission Trading System (ETS).

Now, in London, alongside Japan, the EU is proposing to strengthen its framework by pushing higher reduction targets and introducing a levy. As EU legislation will be revised to align with IMO provisions, this initiative marks a major step forward both globally and for the EU itself. The three key elements of the EU-Japan proposal function as an integrated package, meant to ensure a green transition backed by dedicated funding. This comprehensive approach has also gained the support of Pacific, Caribbean, and some African states, as well as the shipping industry, all of whom recognise its potential.

Looking ahead, the next ten years will determine whether the promises made will be effectively turned into action. As the clock ticks, it is crucial to drive high ambition in both the discussions and the implementation of mid-term measures.

For “developing” countries, the IMO framework represents not only an opportunity to meet climate targets and combat climate change but also to re-evaluate their energy mix. The economic incentives provided by the levy, will make a compelling case for adopting renewable and cleaner energy sources and technologies. 

For “industrialised” countries, this is a chance to fully commit to their obligations under the Paris Agreement and align their efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C or 2°C and to advance the UN Sustainable Development Goal 13 on “climate action”.

The framework proposed by the EU and Japan is designed to meet climate targets while ensuring the necessary funding for a fair and equitable transition. In the context of the announced European Ocean Pact and the Third UN Ocean Conference, we firmly believe that the EU has the unique opportunity to position itself as a global leader in sustainable ocean governance.

As chair and member of the EU Starfish mission and promoters of the European Ocean Pact, we encourage all nations to act with ambition at the IMO and in upcoming international forums, ensuring today's commitments lead to a sustainable future. Now is the time to secure support, especially from hesitant countries, to ensure that climate commitments result in meaningful, lasting change.